Lake Ice Thickness and Frost Depth Calculator

Estimate snow-insulated lake ice growth, compare measured ice with Gold’s load relation, and explore soil frost depth. Always measure ice; no safety verdict is given.

#frost depth #Gold’s rule #lake ice #modified Berggren #Stefan–Ashton

This lake ice thickness calculator brings together three winter engineering estimates: lake ice growth, an empirical ice-load relation, and frost penetration into soil. Engineers and students can compare the effects of cold weather, insulating snow and soil properties without confusing a calculated thickness with a field measurement.

Always measure the ice. No result from this tool declares ice safe. Thickness and quality can change over short distances and within hours. Check the full route repeatedly, consult current local guidance, and avoid relying on an average measurement. Currents, springs, cracks, pressure ridges and recent warming can invalidate a thickness-based calculation.

Start by entering a below-freezing mean air temperature and the duration of an uninterrupted cold period. Enter the measured ice thickness at the beginning of that period, the snow depth over the lake and a snow conductivity. The Stefan–Ashton model includes both snow insulation and resistance to heat transfer at the surface. Its comparison curve removes the snow while keeping the other assumptions unchanged. Both curves describe an idealized growth scenario after freeze-up; neither predicts melt during a warm spell.

Press the play button beside Winter progress to watch the two freeze fronts move. The selected-time results follow the assumed constant-cold conditions. End-of-period results stay fixed while the animation plays. A seasonal average can help estimate an endpoint, but it cannot reconstruct the actual day-by-day history of a winter.

For the Gold relation, enter the minimum measured sound clear ice and any well-bonded sound white ice separately. The tool counts white ice at half thickness and computes mass proportional to equivalent thickness squared. The empirical coefficient is a scenario parameter: Gold reported failures near the line represented by the default coefficient. The inverse calculation is only an algebraic comparison. If you are asking how thick does ice need to be to walk on, do not treat that inverse value as an access threshold. Consult current ice guidance (https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/safety/ice/thickness.html) and Wisconsin DNR precautions (https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/Education/OutdoorSkills/IceSafety), and measure conditions on site.

The frost depth calculator uses a modified Berggren estimate for one homogeneous soil layer. Enter average frozen/unfrozen conductivity and heat capacity, volumetric latent heat, initial ground temperature and the surface freezing n-factor. Ground snow and vegetation belong in the n-factor; lake snow affects only lake ice. The correction accounts for sensible heat as well as latent heat.

The results do not cover sea ice, snow-ice formation, thaw decay, groundwater heat transport, layered ground, frost heave, stationary loads or vehicle dynamics. Soil frost penetration is not a code-required footing or pipe burial depth. Use site investigation and the rules in force for construction design. Foundation and utility installation work belongs to qualified people.

How it is calculated

Ice growth integrates the one-dimensional latent-heat balance ρiLi dh/dt=(0−Ta)/(h/ki+Re)\rho_i L_i\,dh/dt=(0-T_a)/(h/k_i+R_e), with Re=1/H+s/ksR_e=1/H+s/k_s. Thus h(t)=(h0+kiRe)2+2kiF(t)/(ρiLi)−kiReh(t)=\sqrt{(h_0+k_iR_e)^2+2k_iF(t)/(\rho_iL_i)}-k_iR_e, with freezing index FF in K·s. This extends Ashton (1989), equations 5–6, with a constant snow resistance in series and nonzero initial ice. The implemented equivalent form avoids subtraction cancellation. Freshwater constants are ki=2.2k_i=2.2 W/(m·K), ρi=917\rho_i=917 kg/m³ and Li=334L_i=334 kJ/kg (Daley, Ice Engineering formula sheet).

The Gold comparison uses measured ice only: he=hc+0.5hwh_e=h_c+0.5h_w and m=Ahe2m=A h_e^2, with AA in kg/cm² and thickness in cm. Its inverse h=m/Ah=\sqrt{m/A} is an algebraic comparison, never an access minimum. USACE EM 1110-2-1612 (2002), §8-5, supplies the white-ice convention and independent numerical examples. Gold (1971) reports failure near 50h250h^2 lbf for h in inches; this corresponds approximately to the default A=3.5A=3.5 kg/cm². A lower calculated mass is not assurance against failure.

Soil frost depth follows TM 5-852-6 (1988), §3-2: z=λ2kˉFs/Lvz=\lambda\sqrt{2\bar{k}F_s/L_v}, Fs=nFF_s=nF, μ=Cˉvs/Lv\mu=\bar C v_s/L_v, α=v0/vs\alpha=v_0/v_s. With averaged frozen/unfrozen properties, the dimensionless Neumann root η\eta satisfies

e−η2erf⁡η−αe−η2erfc⁡η=πημ,λ=η2/μ.\frac{e^{-\eta^2}}{\operatorname{erf}\eta}-\alpha\frac{e^{-\eta^2}}{\operatorname{erfc}\eta}=\frac{\sqrt\pi\eta}{\mu},\qquad\lambda=\eta\sqrt{2/\mu}.

The root is solved by bisection, following the two-phase heat-equation basis described in ERDC/GSL TR-12-15 (2012), equations 42–47, specialized to equal averaged properties. This avoids chart-reading error; it does not reproduce the separate-property PCASE model. The animation shows the idealized constant-temperature step solution z(t)=zendt/tendz(t)=z_{end}\sqrt{t/t_{end}}.

Assumptions

Freshwater at 0 °C beneath intact ice; one-dimensional vertical conduction; constant material properties, lake snow and effective surface heat transfer; no basal water heat, solar budget, melting, snow flooding or ice sensible heat. The bare-ice comparison changes only snow resistance.

Initially unfrozen, semi-infinite homogeneous soil freezes sharply at 0 °C. Conductivity and heat capacity are averages of frozen and unfrozen properties. The ground surface index is represented by a constant n-factor. The default 0.7 is the bare-soil value in TM 5-852-6, table 2-4; the default soil properties are illustrative sandy-silt estimates, not a material certification. Soil and lake start from their own stated initial conditions.

Gold's relation is an empirical short-duration load scenario for sound floating ice. It does not model footprint, speed, spacing, flexural strength, fatigue or creep. Input mass includes the complete load.

Where it applies

Always measure ice thickness and quality along the full route. This tool never issues a safe verdict. Modeled lake thickness is excluded from all Gold load calculations. Gold's inverse thickness can be much smaller than local recreational guidance and must never be used as permission to walk or drive onto ice.

Use ice growth only during uninterrupted freezing after freeze-up with fixed, dry snow. Exclude saltwater, currents and warm inflows, rotten or thawed ice, slush, separated layers and pressure ridges. Surface exchange and snow conductivity are uncertain; the two curves are scenarios, not confidence bounds.

Soil results are preliminary seasonal frost estimates or an idealized constant-cold step problem, not daily forecasts, frost-heave estimates or prescribed construction depths. TM 5-852-6, printed p. 3-3, explicitly cautions against using modified Berggren for partial seasons under real weather. Layered soils, water migration, unfrozen bound water, permafrost and building heat need a more complete model. Check against the rules and standard in force before design.

Foundation and utility installation work belongs to qualified people; confirm the required construction depth locally.

References

  • Ashton, G. D. (1989). Thin ice growth. Water Resources Research 25(3), 564–566. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR025i003p00564
  • Gold, L. W. (1971). Use of ice covers for transportation. Canadian Geotechnical Journal 8(2), 170–181. https://doi.org/10.1139/t71-018
  • USACE / USAF (1988). TM 5-852-6 / AFR 88-19 Vol. 6, §§2-4, 3-2, 3-3. https://www.wbdg.org/FFC/ARMYCOE/COETM/ARCHIVES/tm_5_852_6.pdf
  • USACE (2002). EM 1110-2-1612, Ice Engineering, §8-5, printed p. 8-8. https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerManuals/EM_1110-2-1612.pdf
  • Bianchini, A. and Gonzalez, C. R. (2012). ERDC/GSL TR-12-15, equations 42–47. https://doi.org/10.21236/ADA559915
  • Daley, C. G. Ice Engineering, worked midterm / formula sheet, freshwater ice properties. https://www.engr.mun.ca/~cdaley/8074/mt_8674_09_SOLN.pdf
  • Wisconsin DNR. Ice safety; consulted 25 October 2026. https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/Education/OutdoorSkills/IceSafety
  • Minnesota DNR. General ice thickness guidelines; consulted 25 October 2026. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/safety/ice/thickness.html

Inputs

InputSymbolUnitDefault
Mean air temperature during freezing
Use a below-freezing mean for an uninterrupted cold period. This model does not subtract melt during thaws.
T_airdegC-5
Duration of freezing period
Time from the stated initial conditions. A seasonal mean gives an endpoint estimate, not a daily forecast.
t_endday90
Winter progress
Press ▶ to move the idealized freeze fronts from the start to the end of this constant-cold scenario.
progress0.6
Ice thickness at start
Measured initial ice thickness. Start after freeze-up; water below the ice is assumed to be at 0 °C.
h_startcm20
Snow depth on the lake
A uniform, dry, unchanged snow layer. Flooding, slush and snow-ice formation are excluded.
s_snowmm60
Snow thermal conductivity
Use a measured value when available. Snow conductivity varies strongly with density and structure.
k_snowW/(m*K)0.2
Surface heat-transfer coefficient
Ashton (1989), p. 565: roughly 10 in still air, 20–25 in typical exposed conditions, up to 30 in wind. This is an effective bulk coefficient.
H_airW/(m^2*K)20
Minimum measured clear ice
Measure ice at multiple points along the entire route and use the smallest sound, clear thickness. Modeled growth is never used for this load relation.
h_clearcm12
Measured sound white ice
Only sound white ice is counted, at half its thickness per USACE. Do not count slush, rotten ice, gaps or unbonded layers.
h_whitecm0
Gold empirical mass coefficient
A scenario coefficient, not a safety factor or certification. 3.5 kg/cm² is approximately the 50 lbf/in² line near which Gold reported failures. Site-specific assessment is essential.
A_goldkg/cm^23.5
Total comparison mass
Include people, equipment, cargo and vehicle. The inverse relation is an algebraic comparison, not a minimum thickness for access.
m_totalkg100
Ground surface freezing n-factor
Surface freezing index divided by air freezing index. TM 5-852-6 gives 0.7 for bare soil. Ground snow and vegetation belong in this factor; the lake snow input does not affect the soil.
n_ground0.7
Initial uniform ground temperature
For seasonal estimates, the manual approximates this by mean annual temperature. This tool covers initially unfrozen ground only.
T_grounddegC5
Average soil thermal conductivity
Average frozen and unfrozen conductivities of one homogeneous layer. Obtain site-specific properties for design.
k_soilW/(m*K)1.3
Average soil volumetric heat capacity
Average frozen and unfrozen volumetric heat capacities, including the soil and its water.
C_soilMJ/(m^3*K)1.9
Soil volumetric latent heat
Latent heat per bulk soil volume. For example, 240 kg of freezable water per m³ gives about 80 MJ/m³. Unfrozen bound water reduces this value.
L_soilMJ/m^380

Results

With the default inputs above, the calc gives:

ResultValue
Modeled ice at selected time35.962 cm
Modeled ice at end45.452 cm
Idealized frost front at selected time0.59 m
Berggren frost depth at end0.77 m
Gold empirical mass — no access clearance504 kg
Inverse Gold thickness — not an access minimum5.3 cm
Elapsed scenario time54 day
Berggren correction0.814

Checked against sources

Each case below was calculated by this calc and agrees with the value from its source (within the tolerance where one is shown).

Ashton Figure 1: 10 K·days, H = 20

Source: Ashton (1989), Figure 1, printed p.565 (attached page 2), https://doi.org/10.1029/WR025i003p00564. Independent approximate graph readout of the H=20 W/(m² K) curve at 10 °C·days: about 4.7 cm. An absolute tolerance of 0.003 m (about 6%) reflects reading a small logarithmic figure and unspecified plotted material constants. This checks transfer of a published curve, not site-specific prediction accuracy.

Inputs: Mean air temperature during freezing = -10 °C; Duration of freezing period = 1 day; Ice thickness at start = 0 cm; Snow depth on the lake = 0 mm; Winter progress = 1; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Modeled ice at end4.7 ± 0.3 cm4.656 cm

USACE homogeneous sandy silt: about 5.8 ft

Source: TM 5-852-6 (1988), §3-3, printed p.3-3 (attached page 21), https://www.wbdg.org/FFC/ARMYCOE/COETM/ARCHIVES/tm_5_852_6.pdf. Printed inputs, checked against the page image: surface index 2500 °F·days, 160 days, MAT 37.2 °F, Kavg 0.76 Btu/(ft h °F), Cavg 28.3 Btu/(ft³ °F), L 2160 Btu/ft³. Converted with 1 Btu_IT=1055.05585262 J and 1 ft=0.3048 m. The source incorrectly prints 2500/160=16.6 °F; the correct value is 15.625 °F. Its OCR additionally misreads 2500 as 2600, 15% as 16%, and 5.2 °F as 6.2 °F. We retain the correct arithmetic and solve the root, rather than forcing lambda=0.89. The published rounded 5.8 ft and chart-read lambda=0.89 are checked with absolute tolerances of 0.018 m and 0.009, respectively (about 1%).

Inputs: Mean air temperature during freezing = -8.681 °C; Duration of freezing period = 160 day; Ground surface freezing n-factor = 1; Initial uniform ground temperature = 2.889 °C; Average soil thermal conductivity = 1.315 W/(m·K); Average soil volumetric heat capacity = 1.898 MJ/(m³·K); Soil volumetric latent heat = 80.479 MJ/m³; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Berggren frost depth at end1.768 ± 0.018 m1.774 m
Berggren correction0.89 ± 0.0090.8955

USACE metric example: 25.4 cm and about 6.45 t

Source: USACE EM 1110-2-1612 (30 October 2002), §8-5(c), printed p.8-8: h=25.4 cm, P=25.4²/100=6.45 metric tons. https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerManuals/EM_1110-2-1612.pdf. The SI example implies A=10 kg/cm²; the default remains 3.5. Expected mass is the source's rounded value, hence an absolute tolerance of 5 kg (half the last printed 0.01 metric-ton digit). The manual's English 6.25 short tons uses a different coefficient and is explicitly not exactly equivalent. This is a numerical relation check, never an endorsement of the source's access wording.

Inputs: Minimum measured clear ice = 25.4 cm; Gold empirical mass coefficient = 10 kg/cm²; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Gold empirical mass — no access clearance6,450 kg6,452 kg

USACE layered ice: 63.5 cm equivalent clear ice

Source: USACE EM 1110-2-1612 (30 October 2002), §8-5(e)(1), printed p.8-8. Published example: 50.8 cm clear ice plus 25.4 cm white ice yields 63.5 cm equivalent clear ice. https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerManuals/EM_1110-2-1612.pdf. Applies only to sound, bonded white ice, not slush or rotten layers.

Inputs: Minimum measured clear ice = 50.8 cm; Measured sound white ice = 25.4 cm; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Measured equivalent clear ice63.5 cm63.5 cm

Related Resources

Responses

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

L ading...