Dual Fuel Heat Pump Switchover: Gas, Oil or Propane
Find economic and capacity balance temperatures, then compare winter cost and CO₂ for a heat pump with resistance backup, dual fuel, and a furnace using editable local weather bins.
A dual fuel heat pump has two different balance points. The economic balance point is where electricity and furnace fuel buy the same amount of delivered heat. The capacity balance point is where the heat pump can no longer cover the house heat loss. This heat pump switchover temperature calculator finds both, then selects a single furnace takeover temperature that respects economics, capacity and the compressor lockout.
Use it to compare a heat pump with electric resistance backup, a dual fuel system, and a furnace-only winter. Engineers can test equipment and tariff choices; students can follow the load line and bin method; homeowners can explore why a neighbour's thermostat setting may be unsuitable for their house.
Start with the house heat loss coefficient, UA, and its outdoor heating balance temperature. UA includes transmission and the effective infiltration and ventilation loss. The balance temperature accounts for useful internal and solar gains. Enter an outdoor design temperature separately to estimate the full furnace output and resistance backup required on a design day.
Next, copy four matching heating-capacity and COP points from your equipment documentation: 47, 17, 5 and −5 °F. Use the same indoor condition and operating speed for capacity and COP. The default illustrates the GREE FLEXX24HP230V1BH / FLEXX36HP230V1AO pairing at 70 °F return air, from its April 2023 extended ratings. It is not a recommendation for that product. NEEP's cold-climate format provides the first three points and permits an additional low-temperature point; −5 °F is not mandatory in every listing.
Enter delivered marginal prices and furnace AFUE. The heat pump vs gas furnace cost comparison changes with both rates and efficiency. Heating oil and propane use US gallons. Price defaults are dated examples: EIA 2025 US electricity and natural-gas averages, and US oil and propane prices for 2 November 2026. Replace these with your bill or supplier quote, including variable delivery charges. Fixed service charges and equipment purchase costs are excluded.
Boston Logan TMY3 supplies the initial local climate. Select custom bins to enter local annual hours in each 5 °F band from −40 to 80 °F, plus warmer hours. Each bin is integrated over temperature, with control boundaries split explicitly. The seasonal table compares purchased electricity, fuel quantity and the fraction of heat supplied by the heat pump. CO₂ includes purchased-electricity emissions and direct fuel combustion; the grid factor is editable.
This is a steady bin analysis, not a room-temperature or cycling simulation. It excludes cooling, hot water, time-of-use tariffs, demand charges, furnace blower electricity and upstream fuel emissions. A TMY year does not represent a severe winter. Check defrost assumptions and manufacturer operating limits before applying a setting. Installation work and changes to furnace or heat pump controls belong to a qualified person.
How it is calculated
The house load is . Following the temperature-bin approach described in ASHRAE Handbook—Fundamentals, 2017, Chapter 19, delivered heat and equipment input are accumulated as . This is a steady temperature-only bin model, not an hourly building heat-balance simulation.
Capacity and COP are independently interpolated linearly through 47, 17, 5 and −5 °F, in the NEEP cold-climate data format. Values above 47 °F are held at the 47 °F point. Below −5 °F the heat pump is disabled. The user may set an earlier compressor lockout. Default equipment data are from GREE extended ratings, April 2023, page 3, first (70 °F return-air) column; these are manufacturer operating data, not an AHRI seasonal rating.
The user-selected extra defrost factors are and , with . This smooth near-freezing envelope is a stated scenario assumption, not a NEEP or AHRI correlation. Set both penalties to zero if the entered data already include the relevant defrost loss.
Fuel heat content converts the purchase price to per delivered kWh. The economic equality is . The search includes every performance knot. It merges consecutive equal-margin linear pieces into equality intervals and separately brackets isolated crossings for Brent root finding. An equality interval begins and ends at its actual performance knots, independent of scan resolution. Full-range equality requires equality at all scanned temperatures and knots, allowing only floating-point round-off. The recommended single lockout is the warmest temperature below which any economic or capacity constraint fails, also bounded by the compressor lockout. If multiple crossovers occur, this conservative single setting skips isolated colder heat-pump-favourable intervals.
The all-electric case supplies up to available heat-pump capacity and supplies the rest with COP-1 resistance heat. Dual fuel runs the heat pump alone above the selected threshold and the furnace alone below it. Furnace-only supplies all heat at AFUE. Uniform hours within each 5 °F bin are integrated with midpoint quadrature, splitting bins at the switch, compressor lockout, balance temperature and performance knots. CO₂ is electricity times the grid factor plus fuel input times the EIA combustion coefficient.
Assumptions
- Constant UA, heating balance temperature, AFUE and marginal prices; adequate backup output to meet the load.
- The same entered COP applies at partial house load; modulation, cycling, distribution losses, standby and auxiliary electricity are not separately resolved.
- Default UA is an illustrative small-house case. Boston TMY3 is independent of the national fuel-price examples.
- Extra defrost reductions of 0.08 for COP and 0.05 for capacity are editable scenario assumptions. The 0.30 kg/kWh grid factor is illustrative.
- EIA heat contents: 100,000 Btu/therm, 138,500 Btu/US gal oil, 91,452 Btu/US gal propane. Combustion factors are 52.91, 74.14 and 62.88 kg CO₂ per million Btu, respectively (EIA, September 2024).
- The Boston histogram is derived from 8,760 EPW dry-bulb records, lower-inclusive and upper-exclusive. Its 380 hours at 80 °F or warmer require no heat within the allowed balance-temperature range.
Where it applies
Performance is supported from −5 °F to the heating balance temperature, with endpoint holding above 47 °F. Never extend operation below the coldest entered point without additional manufacturer data. An absent economic boundary is shown as an unavailable temperature and explained by the economic interpretation; the controller still chooses a finite threshold. A finite equal-cost interval is distinguished from an isolated crossover. Its economic boundary is the warmest internal edge where costs cease to be unequal; the warmest interval's endpoints are listed under How it’s calculated. A missing capacity crossing means no capacity balance within the supported interval.
Custom annual bins cover −40 to 80 °F, with a separate warmer-hours count. Do not put hours colder than −40 °F into the first bin; use a more extensive weather model for those climates. Uniform temperature distribution within a 5 °F band loses actual within-bin weather detail, so finer quadrature does not recover that information. Refine the sample count and crossover scan under Advanced to test numerical stability; plotted curves use 241 samples of the implemented model.
The design-temperature backup outputs are sizing requirements, not checks of installed equipment. The single dual-fuel threshold enforces non-simultaneous operation. Thermostat dead bands, setback recovery, utility lockouts, backup delays, line-length corrections, multi-head diversity and equipment-specific defrost controls are outside the model. AFUE is used as an effective fuel-to-heat efficiency; blower and burner auxiliary electricity are excluded.
Price basis: 2025 EIA US residential electricity 0.173 USD/kWh and gas 15.34 USD/1,000 ft³ (about 1.48 USD/therm using 1,036 Btu/ft³); oil 6.138 USD/US gal and propane 2.820 USD/US gal for 2 November 2026, checked 6 November 2026. These are dated comparison inputs, not live local tariffs. CO₂ excludes methane leakage, refrigerant loss and other life-cycle emissions. This calculator does not implement AHRI 210/240 certification or a code compliance calculation.
References
- NEEP, Cold Climate Heat Pump Sizing Support Tools User Guide, February 2024 (load line, capacity interpolation, optional low-temperature data). https://neep.org/sites/default/files/media-files/neep_heatpump_visualization_guide_final.pdf
- NEEP, Cold Climate Air-Source Heat Pump Specification, Version 2.0 (performance-data format). https://neep.org/sites/default/files/resources/Cold%20Climate%20Air-source%20Heat%20Pump%20Specification-Version%202.0_0.pdf
- GREE, FLEXX extended ratings, 24 April 2023, p. 3, FLEXX24HP230V1BH/FLEXX36HP230V1AO, 70 °F return. https://www.greecomfort.com/assets/our-products/flexx/documents/flexx-extended-ratings-ao-bh.pdf
- ASHRAE Handbook—Fundamentals, 2017 edition, Chapter 19, Energy Estimating and Modeling Methods, bin method. https://handbook.ashrae.org/handbooks/F17/SI/f17_ch19/f17_ch19_si.aspx
- DOE EnergyPlus weather archive, Boston Logan TMY3, station 725090; histogram derivation attached. https://energyplus-weather.s3.amazonaws.com/north_and_central_america_wmo_region_4/USA/MA/USA_MA_Boston-Logan.Intl.AP.725090_TMY3/USA_MA_Boston-Logan.Intl.AP.725090_TMY3.epw
- EIA, fuel heat contents. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/british-thermal-units.php
- EIA, Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coefficients, 18 September 2024. https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
- EIA, annual electricity prices, 2025. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/prices-and-factors-affecting-prices.php
- EIA, natural gas prices, 2025, release 30 October 2026. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
- EIA, Heating Oil and Propane Update, 2 November 2026. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
- AHRI Standard 210/240-2024 (I-P), rating-point context only; this tool does not reproduce its seasonal rating procedure. Check against the standard in force. https://www.ahrinet.org/search-standards/ahri-210240-i-p-performance-rating-unitary-air-conditioning-and-air-source-heat-pump-equipment
- NY DPS, Exhibit 9 Heat Pump Energy Calculations, February 2025 bill example; absolute unit costs used as an independent reference case. https://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId=%7B2018C29A-0000-C263-8ACA-85EDDFE7F5A2%7D&DocTitle=Exhibit+9+Heat+Pump+Energy+Calculations
Inputs
| Input | Symbol | Unit | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backup fuel | fuel | Natural gas | |
| House heat loss coefficient Use a load calculation or a weather-normalized fuel-use fit. | UA | kW/K | 0.2 |
| House heating balance temperature Outdoor temperature at which internal and solar gains cover the heat loss. | T_balance | °C | 18.33 |
| Outdoor design temperature | T_design | °C | -13.6 |
| Furnace AFUE | eta_gas | 0.95 | |
| Furnace AFUE | eta_oil | 0.85 | |
| Furnace AFUE | eta_propane | 0.95 | |
| Electricity price Enter the marginal delivered rate, including per-kWh supply, delivery and taxes. | p_e | USD/kWh | 0.173 |
| Natural gas price | p_gas | USD/therm | 1.48 |
| Heating oil price | p_oil | USD/gal | 6.138 |
| Propane price | p_propane | USD/gal | 2.82 |
| Heating capacity at 47 °F Use capacity and COP from the same operating speed and indoor condition. | Q_47 | BTU/h | 24000 |
| COP at 47 °F | COP_47 | 3.4 | |
| Heating capacity at 17 °F | Q_17 | BTU/h | 24000 |
| COP at 17 °F | COP_17 | 2.43 | |
| Heating capacity at 5 °F | Q_5 | BTU/h | 22000 |
| COP at 5 °F | COP_5 | 1.8 | |
| Heating capacity at -5 °F | Q_m5 | BTU/h | 22000 |
| COP at -5 °F | COP_m5 | 1.7 | |
| Heat pump low-temperature lockout Do not run below the coldest entered performance point. | T_lock | °C | -20.55 |
| Peak defrost COP reduction Fractional extra penalty near freezing; use zero for data already including defrost. | df_cop | 0.08 | |
| Peak defrost capacity reduction | df_cap | 0.05 | |
| Electricity CO₂ intensity Use your grid or supplier factor; the default is an illustrative mix. | g_e | kg/kWh | 0.3 |
| Climate bin hours Custom bins replace the Boston histogram; each band is lower-inclusive. | climate | Boston Logan — TMY3 | |
| -40 to -35 °F | h_1 | h | 0 |
| -35 to -30 °F | h_2 | h | 0 |
| -30 to -25 °F | h_3 | h | 0 |
| -25 to -20 °F | h_4 | h | 0 |
| -20 to -15 °F | h_5 | h | 0 |
| -15 to -10 °F | h_6 | h | 0 |
| -10 to -5 °F | h_7 | h | 0 |
| -5 to 0 °F | h_8 | h | 10 |
| 0 to 5 °F | h_9 | h | 2 |
| 5 to 10 °F | h_10 | h | 34 |
| 10 to 15 °F | h_11 | h | 77 |
| 15 to 20 °F | h_12 | h | 265 |
| 20 to 25 °F | h_13 | h | 284 |
| 25 to 30 °F | h_14 | h | 320 |
| 30 to 35 °F | h_15 | h | 707 |
| 35 to 40 °F | h_16 | h | 1060 |
| 40 to 45 °F | h_17 | h | 738 |
| 45 to 50 °F | h_18 | h | 608 |
| 50 to 55 °F | h_19 | h | 774 |
| 55 to 60 °F | h_20 | h | 772 |
| 60 to 65 °F | h_21 | h | 927 |
| 65 to 70 °F | h_22 | h | 762 |
| 70 to 75 °F | h_23 | h | 595 |
| 75 to 80 °F | h_24 | h | 445 |
| 80 °F and warmer | h_warm | h | 380 |
| Outdoor comparison temperature Compares the equipment curve before controller lockout. | T_probe | °C | -8.33 |
| Samples per bin segment Each bin is split at control and performance boundaries before integration. | N_quad | 24 | |
| Crossover search points | N_root | 801 |
Results
With the default inputs above, the calc gives:
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Dual-fuel switchover | 6.6 °C |
| Governing control | Economics governs |
| Economic crossover boundary | 6.6 °C |
| Economic interpretation | One economic crossover |
| Capacity balance point | -14.2 °C |
| Break-even COP | 3.25 |
| Heat pump + resistance: winter cost | 962 USD |
| Dual fuel: winter cost | 824 USD |
| Furnace only: winter cost | 830 USD |
| Heat pump + resistance: winter CO₂ | 1,668 kg |
| Dual fuel: winter CO₂ | 2,612 kg |
| Furnace only: winter CO₂ | 2,968 kg |
| Seasonal delivered heat | 15,619 kWh |
| Furnace output required at design | 6.39 kW |
| Resistance backup required at design | 0 kW |
| COP at comparison temperature | 2.42 |
| Electrical input at full equipment output | 2.9 kW |
Checked against sources
Each case below was calculated by this calc and agrees with the value from its source (within the tolerance where one is shown).
GREE electrical input at 17 °F
Source: GREE FLEXX extended ratings, April 2023, p. 3: FLEXX24HP230V1BH/FLEXX36HP230V1AO, 70 °F return. Published capacity and COP independently imply the listed 2,900 W input within rounding.
Inputs: Outdoor comparison temperature = -8.333 °C; Peak defrost COP reduction = 0; Peak defrost capacity reduction = 0; the others as above.
| Result | Source | This calc |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical input at full equipment output | 2.9 ± 0.01 kW | 2.895 kW |
GREE electrical input at 5 °F
Source: GREE FLEXX extended ratings, April 2023, p. 3: 70 °F return; published input 3,580 W. The capacity/COP conversion is checked against the independently tabulated electrical input.
Inputs: Outdoor comparison temperature = -15 °C; Peak defrost COP reduction = 0; Peak defrost capacity reduction = 0; the others as above.
| Result | Source | This calc |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical input at full equipment output | 3.58 ± 0.01 kW | 3.582 kW |
Published February 2025 delivered-heat costs
Source: NY DPS public filing, Exhibit 9 Heat Pump Energy Calculations, February 2025 bills: electricity 0.34 USD/kWh, gas 2.42 USD/therm, 90% AFUE; published delivered-therm costs 2.69 USD furnace and 3.99 USD at COP 2.5. The exhibit's percentage headings mix total-cost ratios and percentage increases; only its absolute unit costs are checked. https://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId=%7B2018C29A-0000-C263-8ACA-85EDDFE7F5A2%7D&DocTitle=Exhibit+9+Heat+Pump+Energy+Calculations
Inputs: Electricity price = 0.34 USD/kWh; Natural gas price = 2.42 USD/therm; Furnace AFUE = 0.9; COP at 47 °F = 2.5; COP at 17 °F = 2.5; COP at 5 °F = 2.5; COP at -5 °F = 2.5; Peak defrost COP reduction = 0; Peak defrost capacity reduction = 0; the others as above.
| Result | Source | This calc |
|---|---|---|
| Furnace cost per delivered therm | 2.69 ± 0.01 USD | 2.689 USD |
| Heat pump cost per delivered therm | 3.99 ± 0.01 USD | 3.986 USD |

Responses