Dual Fuel Heat Pump Switchover: Gas, Oil or Propane

Find economic and capacity balance temperatures, then compare winter cost and CO₂ for a heat pump with resistance backup, dual fuel, and a furnace using editable local weather bins.

#AFUE #bin-hour method #dual fuel #economic balance point #heat pump #NEEP

A dual fuel heat pump has two different balance points. The economic balance point is where electricity and furnace fuel buy the same amount of delivered heat. The capacity balance point is where the heat pump can no longer cover the house heat loss. This heat pump switchover temperature calculator finds both, then selects a single furnace takeover temperature that respects economics, capacity and the compressor lockout.

Use it to compare a heat pump with electric resistance backup, a dual fuel system, and a furnace-only winter. Engineers can test equipment and tariff choices; students can follow the load line and bin method; homeowners can explore why a neighbour's thermostat setting may be unsuitable for their house.

Start with the house heat loss coefficient, UA, and its outdoor heating balance temperature. UA includes transmission and the effective infiltration and ventilation loss. The balance temperature accounts for useful internal and solar gains. Enter an outdoor design temperature separately to estimate the full furnace output and resistance backup required on a design day.

Next, copy four matching heating-capacity and COP points from your equipment documentation: 47, 17, 5 and −5 °F. Use the same indoor condition and operating speed for capacity and COP. The default illustrates the GREE FLEXX24HP230V1BH / FLEXX36HP230V1AO pairing at 70 °F return air, from its April 2023 extended ratings. It is not a recommendation for that product. NEEP's cold-climate format provides the first three points and permits an additional low-temperature point; −5 °F is not mandatory in every listing.

Enter delivered marginal prices and furnace AFUE. The heat pump vs gas furnace cost comparison changes with both rates and efficiency. Heating oil and propane use US gallons. Price defaults are dated examples: EIA 2025 US electricity and natural-gas averages, and US oil and propane prices for 2 November 2026. Replace these with your bill or supplier quote, including variable delivery charges. Fixed service charges and equipment purchase costs are excluded.

Boston Logan TMY3 supplies the initial local climate. Select custom bins to enter local annual hours in each 5 °F band from −40 to 80 °F, plus warmer hours. Each bin is integrated over temperature, with control boundaries split explicitly. The seasonal table compares purchased electricity, fuel quantity and the fraction of heat supplied by the heat pump. CO₂ includes purchased-electricity emissions and direct fuel combustion; the grid factor is editable.

This is a steady bin analysis, not a room-temperature or cycling simulation. It excludes cooling, hot water, time-of-use tariffs, demand charges, furnace blower electricity and upstream fuel emissions. A TMY year does not represent a severe winter. Check defrost assumptions and manufacturer operating limits before applying a setting. Installation work and changes to furnace or heat pump controls belong to a qualified person.

How it is calculated

The house load is QL(T)=UAmax⁡(Tb−T,0)Q_L(T)=UA\max(T_b-T,0). Following the temperature-bin approach described in ASHRAE Handbook—Fundamentals, 2017, Chapter 19, delivered heat and equipment input are accumulated as ∑jQ(Tj)hj\sum_j Q(T_j)h_j. This is a steady temperature-only bin model, not an hourly building heat-balance simulation.

Capacity and COP are independently interpolated linearly through 47, 17, 5 and −5 °F, in the NEEP cold-climate data format. Values above 47 °F are held at the 47 °F point. Below −5 °F the heat pump is disabled. The user may set an earlier compressor lockout. Default equipment data are from GREE extended ratings, April 2023, page 3, first (70 °F return-air) column; these are manufacturer operating data, not an AHRI seasonal rating.

The user-selected extra defrost factors are QHP=Qtable(1−dQw)Q_{HP}=Q_{table}(1-d_Q w) and COP=COPtable(1−dCw)COP=COP_{table}(1-d_C w), with w=exp⁡[−((T−0 ∘C)/(5 K))2]w=\exp[-((T-0\,^{\circ}C)/(5\,K))^2]. This smooth near-freezing envelope is a stated scenario assumption, not a NEEP or AHRI correlation. Set both penalties to zero if the entered data already include the relevant defrost loss.

Fuel heat content converts the purchase price to cf=pf/(Hfηf)c_f=p_f/(H_f\eta_f) per delivered kWh. The economic equality is COP∗=pe/cfCOP_*=p_e/c_f. The search includes every performance knot. It merges consecutive equal-margin linear pieces into equality intervals and separately brackets isolated crossings for Brent root finding. An equality interval begins and ends at its actual performance knots, independent of scan resolution. Full-range equality requires equality at all scanned temperatures and knots, allowing only floating-point round-off. The recommended single lockout is the warmest temperature below which any economic or capacity constraint fails, also bounded by the compressor lockout. If multiple crossovers occur, this conservative single setting skips isolated colder heat-pump-favourable intervals.

The all-electric case supplies up to available heat-pump capacity and supplies the rest with COP-1 resistance heat. Dual fuel runs the heat pump alone above the selected threshold and the furnace alone below it. Furnace-only supplies all heat at AFUE. Uniform hours within each 5 °F bin are integrated with midpoint quadrature, splitting bins at the switch, compressor lockout, balance temperature and performance knots. CO₂ is electricity times the grid factor plus fuel input times the EIA combustion coefficient.

Assumptions

  • Constant UA, heating balance temperature, AFUE and marginal prices; adequate backup output to meet the load.
  • The same entered COP applies at partial house load; modulation, cycling, distribution losses, standby and auxiliary electricity are not separately resolved.
  • Default UA is an illustrative small-house case. Boston TMY3 is independent of the national fuel-price examples.
  • Extra defrost reductions of 0.08 for COP and 0.05 for capacity are editable scenario assumptions. The 0.30 kg/kWh grid factor is illustrative.
  • EIA heat contents: 100,000 Btu/therm, 138,500 Btu/US gal oil, 91,452 Btu/US gal propane. Combustion factors are 52.91, 74.14 and 62.88 kg CO₂ per million Btu, respectively (EIA, September 2024).
  • The Boston histogram is derived from 8,760 EPW dry-bulb records, lower-inclusive and upper-exclusive. Its 380 hours at 80 °F or warmer require no heat within the allowed balance-temperature range.

Where it applies

Performance is supported from −5 °F to the heating balance temperature, with endpoint holding above 47 °F. Never extend operation below the coldest entered point without additional manufacturer data. An absent economic boundary is shown as an unavailable temperature and explained by the economic interpretation; the controller still chooses a finite threshold. A finite equal-cost interval is distinguished from an isolated crossover. Its economic boundary is the warmest internal edge where costs cease to be unequal; the warmest interval's endpoints are listed under How it’s calculated. A missing capacity crossing means no capacity balance within the supported interval.

Custom annual bins cover −40 to 80 °F, with a separate warmer-hours count. Do not put hours colder than −40 °F into the first bin; use a more extensive weather model for those climates. Uniform temperature distribution within a 5 °F band loses actual within-bin weather detail, so finer quadrature does not recover that information. Refine the sample count and crossover scan under Advanced to test numerical stability; plotted curves use 241 samples of the implemented model.

The design-temperature backup outputs are sizing requirements, not checks of installed equipment. The single dual-fuel threshold enforces non-simultaneous operation. Thermostat dead bands, setback recovery, utility lockouts, backup delays, line-length corrections, multi-head diversity and equipment-specific defrost controls are outside the model. AFUE is used as an effective fuel-to-heat efficiency; blower and burner auxiliary electricity are excluded.

Price basis: 2025 EIA US residential electricity 0.173 USD/kWh and gas 15.34 USD/1,000 ft³ (about 1.48 USD/therm using 1,036 Btu/ft³); oil 6.138 USD/US gal and propane 2.820 USD/US gal for 2 November 2026, checked 6 November 2026. These are dated comparison inputs, not live local tariffs. CO₂ excludes methane leakage, refrigerant loss and other life-cycle emissions. This calculator does not implement AHRI 210/240 certification or a code compliance calculation.

References

  • NEEP, Cold Climate Heat Pump Sizing Support Tools User Guide, February 2024 (load line, capacity interpolation, optional low-temperature data). https://neep.org/sites/default/files/media-files/neep_heatpump_visualization_guide_final.pdf
  • NEEP, Cold Climate Air-Source Heat Pump Specification, Version 2.0 (performance-data format). https://neep.org/sites/default/files/resources/Cold%20Climate%20Air-source%20Heat%20Pump%20Specification-Version%202.0_0.pdf
  • GREE, FLEXX extended ratings, 24 April 2023, p. 3, FLEXX24HP230V1BH/FLEXX36HP230V1AO, 70 °F return. https://www.greecomfort.com/assets/our-products/flexx/documents/flexx-extended-ratings-ao-bh.pdf
  • ASHRAE Handbook—Fundamentals, 2017 edition, Chapter 19, Energy Estimating and Modeling Methods, bin method. https://handbook.ashrae.org/handbooks/F17/SI/f17_ch19/f17_ch19_si.aspx
  • DOE EnergyPlus weather archive, Boston Logan TMY3, station 725090; histogram derivation attached. https://energyplus-weather.s3.amazonaws.com/north_and_central_america_wmo_region_4/USA/MA/USA_MA_Boston-Logan.Intl.AP.725090_TMY3/USA_MA_Boston-Logan.Intl.AP.725090_TMY3.epw
  • EIA, fuel heat contents. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/british-thermal-units.php
  • EIA, Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coefficients, 18 September 2024. https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
  • EIA, annual electricity prices, 2025. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/prices-and-factors-affecting-prices.php
  • EIA, natural gas prices, 2025, release 30 October 2026. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
  • EIA, Heating Oil and Propane Update, 2 November 2026. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
  • AHRI Standard 210/240-2024 (I-P), rating-point context only; this tool does not reproduce its seasonal rating procedure. Check against the standard in force. https://www.ahrinet.org/search-standards/ahri-210240-i-p-performance-rating-unitary-air-conditioning-and-air-source-heat-pump-equipment
  • NY DPS, Exhibit 9 Heat Pump Energy Calculations, February 2025 bill example; absolute unit costs used as an independent reference case. https://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId=%7B2018C29A-0000-C263-8ACA-85EDDFE7F5A2%7D&DocTitle=Exhibit+9+Heat+Pump+Energy+Calculations

Inputs

InputSymbolUnitDefault
Backup fuelfuelNatural gas
House heat loss coefficient
Use a load calculation or a weather-normalized fuel-use fit.
UAkW/K0.2
House heating balance temperature
Outdoor temperature at which internal and solar gains cover the heat loss.
T_balance°C18.33
Outdoor design temperatureT_design°C-13.6
Furnace AFUEeta_gas0.95
Furnace AFUEeta_oil0.85
Furnace AFUEeta_propane0.95
Electricity price
Enter the marginal delivered rate, including per-kWh supply, delivery and taxes.
p_eUSD/kWh0.173
Natural gas pricep_gasUSD/therm1.48
Heating oil pricep_oilUSD/gal6.138
Propane pricep_propaneUSD/gal2.82
Heating capacity at 47 °F
Use capacity and COP from the same operating speed and indoor condition.
Q_47BTU/h24000
COP at 47 °FCOP_473.4
Heating capacity at 17 °FQ_17BTU/h24000
COP at 17 °FCOP_172.43
Heating capacity at 5 °FQ_5BTU/h22000
COP at 5 °FCOP_51.8
Heating capacity at -5 °FQ_m5BTU/h22000
COP at -5 °FCOP_m51.7
Heat pump low-temperature lockout
Do not run below the coldest entered performance point.
T_lock°C-20.55
Peak defrost COP reduction
Fractional extra penalty near freezing; use zero for data already including defrost.
df_cop0.08
Peak defrost capacity reductiondf_cap0.05
Electricity CO₂ intensity
Use your grid or supplier factor; the default is an illustrative mix.
g_ekg/kWh0.3
Climate bin hours
Custom bins replace the Boston histogram; each band is lower-inclusive.
climateBoston Logan — TMY3
-40 to -35 °Fh_1h0
-35 to -30 °Fh_2h0
-30 to -25 °Fh_3h0
-25 to -20 °Fh_4h0
-20 to -15 °Fh_5h0
-15 to -10 °Fh_6h0
-10 to -5 °Fh_7h0
-5 to 0 °Fh_8h10
0 to 5 °Fh_9h2
5 to 10 °Fh_10h34
10 to 15 °Fh_11h77
15 to 20 °Fh_12h265
20 to 25 °Fh_13h284
25 to 30 °Fh_14h320
30 to 35 °Fh_15h707
35 to 40 °Fh_16h1060
40 to 45 °Fh_17h738
45 to 50 °Fh_18h608
50 to 55 °Fh_19h774
55 to 60 °Fh_20h772
60 to 65 °Fh_21h927
65 to 70 °Fh_22h762
70 to 75 °Fh_23h595
75 to 80 °Fh_24h445
80 °F and warmerh_warmh380
Outdoor comparison temperature
Compares the equipment curve before controller lockout.
T_probe°C-8.33
Samples per bin segment
Each bin is split at control and performance boundaries before integration.
N_quad24
Crossover search pointsN_root801

Results

With the default inputs above, the calc gives:

ResultValue
Dual-fuel switchover6.6 °C
Governing controlEconomics governs
Economic crossover boundary6.6 °C
Economic interpretationOne economic crossover
Capacity balance point-14.2 °C
Break-even COP3.25
Heat pump + resistance: winter cost962 USD
Dual fuel: winter cost824 USD
Furnace only: winter cost830 USD
Heat pump + resistance: winter CO₂1,668 kg
Dual fuel: winter CO₂2,612 kg
Furnace only: winter CO₂2,968 kg
Seasonal delivered heat15,619 kWh
Furnace output required at design6.39 kW
Resistance backup required at design0 kW
COP at comparison temperature2.42
Electrical input at full equipment output2.9 kW

Checked against sources

Each case below was calculated by this calc and agrees with the value from its source (within the tolerance where one is shown).

GREE electrical input at 17 °F

Source: GREE FLEXX extended ratings, April 2023, p. 3: FLEXX24HP230V1BH/FLEXX36HP230V1AO, 70 °F return. Published capacity and COP independently imply the listed 2,900 W input within rounding.

Inputs: Outdoor comparison temperature = -8.333 °C; Peak defrost COP reduction = 0; Peak defrost capacity reduction = 0; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Electrical input at full equipment output2.9 ± 0.01 kW2.895 kW

GREE electrical input at 5 °F

Source: GREE FLEXX extended ratings, April 2023, p. 3: 70 °F return; published input 3,580 W. The capacity/COP conversion is checked against the independently tabulated electrical input.

Inputs: Outdoor comparison temperature = -15 °C; Peak defrost COP reduction = 0; Peak defrost capacity reduction = 0; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Electrical input at full equipment output3.58 ± 0.01 kW3.582 kW

Published February 2025 delivered-heat costs

Source: NY DPS public filing, Exhibit 9 Heat Pump Energy Calculations, February 2025 bills: electricity 0.34 USD/kWh, gas 2.42 USD/therm, 90% AFUE; published delivered-therm costs 2.69 USD furnace and 3.99 USD at COP 2.5. The exhibit's percentage headings mix total-cost ratios and percentage increases; only its absolute unit costs are checked. https://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId=%7B2018C29A-0000-C263-8ACA-85EDDFE7F5A2%7D&DocTitle=Exhibit+9+Heat+Pump+Energy+Calculations

Inputs: Electricity price = 0.34 USD/kWh; Natural gas price = 2.42 USD/therm; Furnace AFUE = 0.9; COP at 47 °F = 2.5; COP at 17 °F = 2.5; COP at 5 °F = 2.5; COP at -5 °F = 2.5; Peak defrost COP reduction = 0; Peak defrost capacity reduction = 0; the others as above.

ResultSourceThis calc
Furnace cost per delivered therm2.69 ± 0.01 USD2.689 USD
Heat pump cost per delivered therm3.99 ± 0.01 USD3.986 USD

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